EUR/USD Forecast Today

How to read this euro dollar forecast

Everything on this page comes from closed candles: yesterday's, last week's and last month's high and low, the classic pivot points, and whether the last daily and weekly closes sit above or below their 50-period exponential moving average. Those are the reference points most EUR/USD traders mark before the London open. Nothing here predicts the next move.

What drives the euro dollar rate (EUR/USD)

EUR/USD moves mostly on the gap between what markets expect from the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve. US releases (CPI inflation, the monthly jobs report, Fed meetings) and eurozone inflation and PMI surveys cause the biggest daily ranges. It is the most traded currency pair, so spreads are tight and it trades actively through the London session and the London–New York overlap.

Ranges, sweeps and the trend filter

The previous day's and week's highs and lows are where many traders leave stop orders. A move through one of them that closes back inside is a liquidity sweep, the first step in the rules our bots follow. The bots only take setups in the direction of their higher-timeframe trend filter, the same 50-EMA test shown at the top of this page. Their full rules are on the methodology page, and the session times guide covers when London and New York are open.

If you trade a level, size the position from your stop: a pip on EUR/USD is 0.0001, worth $10 per standard lot. The risk reward calculator checks whether the target is worth the stop, and how to calculate lot size walks through the arithmetic.