Free tool · risk management

Drawdown Calculator & Risk of Ruin

A drawdown is the fall from an account's peak to its lowest point, as a percentage. Getting back takes a bigger gain than the loss: drawdown ÷ (1 − drawdown), so a 20% drawdown needs a 25% gain and a 50% drawdown needs 100%. Risk of ruin is the chance of hitting a drawdown you can't come back from.

Three calculators in one: the gain you need to recover a drawdown, how deep a losing streak takes your account and how likely that streak is, and a risk of ruin simulation for your win rate, payoff and risk per trade.

Drawdown recovery

Drawdown

Gain needed to get back to the peak

25.0%

Drawdown vs gain needed to recover
Drawdown	Gain needed
5%	5.3%
10%	11.1%
20%	25.0%
25%	33.3%
30%	42.9%
40%	66.7%
50%	100.0%
60%	150.0%
75%	300.0%
90%	900.0%

Drawdown after 10 losses in a row: 9.6%
Losses in a row to reach a 20% drawdown: 23
Chance of at least one streak of 10+ losses: 38.0%over 200 trades at a 40% win rate

Chance of hitting a 50% drawdown

0.3%

Expectancy per trade: +0.20R
Median max drawdown: 24.6%the typical deepest dip along the way
Median final balance: 2.44×of the starting balance

Every gold setup comes with a defined stopOur bots post each reaction area with an invalidation level, so you always know the 1R before you size a trade.Today's gold analysis →

How drawdown works against you

Gain needed to recover = drawdown ÷ (1 − drawdown)

Losses and gains aren't symmetrical. Lose 50% and the account has to double to get back. That's why most risk rules cap the loss per trade: at 1% risk, 10 losses in a row (which happens more often than people expect) costs 9.6% of the account and needs a 10.6% gain to recover. At 5% risk the same streak costs 40% and needs 67%.

Bars comparing drawdowns of 10% to 60% with the gain needed to recover: 11.1%, 25%, 42.9%, 66.7%, 100% and 150% — Each extra 10% of drawdown needs a bigger gain to recover than the last.

Size each trade so a stop-out costs the percentage you chose: the gold lot size calculator does that for XAUUSD, and the win rate calculator gives you the win rate and payoff to put into the simulation above.

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Drawdown calculator FAQ

How much do I need to gain to recover from a drawdown?

Gain needed = drawdown ÷ (1 − drawdown). A 10% drawdown needs an 11.1% gain, 20% needs 25%, and 50% needs 100%. The deeper the drawdown, the faster the required gain grows, which is why limiting losses matters more than chasing gains.

How many losing trades in a row should I expect?

More than most traders think. At a 40% win rate, the chance of at least one run of 8 losses in a row over 200 trades is about 75%, and of 9 in a row about 56%. The streak calculator on this page works it out exactly for your win rate and number of trades.

What is risk of ruin?

Risk of ruin is the chance that a strategy loses enough to hit a level you can't come back from, such as a 50% drawdown. It depends on win rate, payoff and how much you risk per trade. This page estimates it by simulating thousands of random trade sequences with your numbers.

How much should I risk per trade?

Many traders keep risk at 0.5% to 2% of the account per trade so that a normal losing streak stays a manageable drawdown. At 1% risk, ten losses in a row is a 9.6% drawdown; at 5% risk it is 40%. This is general information, not advice for your situation.

Educational, not financial advice. Trading involves risk of loss.