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Win Rate Calculator & Expectancy

Win rate is the share of trades that win: winning trades divided by winning plus losing trades. On its own it doesn't say whether a strategy makes money. That depends on how big the wins are compared with the losses, which is what expectancy (the average result per trade) and profit factor (gross wins ÷ gross losses) add.

Count your winning and losing trades to get your win rate. Add your average win and loss and it works as an expectancy calculator too, with profit factor and the win rate you actually need. Use money or R; both work.

Win rate

45.0%

100 trades

Payoff ratio (avg win ÷ avg loss): 2.00
Win rate needed at this payoff: 33.3%to break even, before costs
Expectancy per trade: +21.00in the same unit as your averages
Profit factor: 1.64gross wins ÷ gross losses

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Win rate needed for each payoff ratio

Break-even win rate = 1 ÷ (1 + average win ÷ average loss). Above it a strategy makes money before costs.

Break-even win rate by payoff ratio
Average win ÷ average loss	Break-even win rate
0.5	66.7%
1.0	50.0%
1.5	40.0%
2.0	33.3%
3.0	25.0%

Why win rate alone can mislead you

Worked example: 45 wins and 55 losses is a 45% win rate. If the average win is $120 and the average loss $60, the payoff ratio is 2.0, the break-even win rate is 33.3%, and expectancy is (45 × 120 − 55 × 60) ÷ 100 = $21 per trade. Profit factor is 5,400 ÷ 3,300 = 1.64.

Break-even win rate curve against payoff ratio: 66.7% at 0.5, 50% at 1, 33.3% at 2, 20% at 4. A 45% win rate makes $21 per trade at a 2.0 payoff and loses $39 per trade at a 0.5 payoff — The same 45% win rate, two outcomes: it depends which side of the line the payoff puts you.

Flip the averages ($60 wins, $120 losses) and the same 45% win rate loses $39 per trade. That's why the calculator asks for both numbers: a high win rate with small winners can lose money, and a low one with big winners can make it. The risk reward calculator shows the same trade-off before you take a trade, and the drawdown calculator shows how long losing streaks at your win rate can run.

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Win rate calculator FAQ

How do you calculate win rate in trading?

Win rate = winning trades ÷ (winning trades + losing trades) × 100. With 45 wins and 55 losses it is 45 ÷ 100 = 45%. Break-even trades are usually left out of the count, and this calculator shows both versions.

What is a good win rate for trading?

There is no single good number, because win rate only means something next to the average win and loss. A 35% win rate is profitable if winners are more than about twice the size of losers, and a 70% win rate loses money if losers are three times the size of winners.

What is expectancy?

Expectancy is the average result per trade: (wins × average win − losses × average loss) ÷ number of trades. Positive expectancy means the record made money on average per trade; it says nothing certain about the next trade.

What is profit factor?

Profit factor is gross profit ÷ gross loss. Above 1.0 the strategy made money; 1.5 means it made $1.50 for every $1 it lost. A small sample of trades can give a misleading profit factor, so judge it over at least a few dozen trades.

Educational, not financial advice. Trading involves risk of loss.